|The Experts Speak|
The Experts Speak on the Global Hubbert Peak
Here are brief summaries of the work of experts in this field. Refer to the Bibliography for details.M. King Hubbert, Geologist
Dr. Albert Bartlett, Dept. of Physics, University of Colorado
... the man who discovered how to characterize the limits to non-renewable resources
Based on analysis of oil exploration records, Dr. M. King Hubbert developed a model and predicted in 1956 that the USA would peak in its production of oil around 1970. He was discouraged from disclosing this foreboding news by his employers. He felt morally obligated to disclose the truth, and yet when he did so, his peers laughed at him. As we all know, he was right on, and the USA and the world suffered the first oil shock soon after the USA reached the peak he predicted.
Dr. Hubbert continued to publish his findings. Notably, in a non-technical article in National Geographics (in 1974) he predicted that the global peak would occur around 1995. With access to the latest technology and information, his followers' present-day predictions are not much different from his own. It is now estimated that the peak will occur around 1999, as we march inevitably towards the permanent end of the era of cheap oil.
Less well known were Hubbert's studies since 1926 on the rate of industrial growth and of mineral and energy resources and their significance in the evolution of the world's present technological civilization. Read about these studies in "Hubbert's Prescription for Survival, A Steady State Economy" by Robert L. Hickerson.
Dr. Al Bartlett, Professor Emeritus, , Department of Physics, University of Colorado, has spoken publicly over 1,500 times about the folly of ignoring the consequences of exponential growth. He speaks about the impact of unchecked population growth and growth in the consumption of irreplaceable resources. He refers frequently to the landmark work of Dr. Hubbert. A video of his popular talk is available.
Roger BentleyThe Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, London
Global oil &gas depletion:an overview: "The world’s production of conventional hydrocarbons will soon decline. Hydrocarbon shortages are inevitable unless radical changes occur in demand,or in the supply of non-conventional hydrocarbons...."
Roger D. Blanchard is an associate professor of chemistry at Northern Kentucky University. He teaches a course covering energy and energy resources and has a particular interest in petroleum because of its importance to industrial society. Here he writes about The Impact of Declining Major North Sea Oil Fields Upon Future North Sea Production.
Dr. Colin Campbell, a geologist with first hand experience in petroleum exploration, has developed comprehensive predictions of future global oil availability. Dr. Campbell points out the existence of "political" reserves -- claims only on paper of oil reserves created by national governments to increase their OPEC quotas or improve their chances of obtaining loans from the World Bank -- perhaps as much as 100 billion barrels -- equivalent to 15 years of consumption at today's rate. He is now a partner with PetroPlan, providing studies for strategic and planning purposes for the oil industry.
Dr. Cleveland is the Director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Boston University and vice-president in the International Society of Ecological Economics. Dr. Cleveland's research focuses on the ecological-economic analysis of how energy and materials are used to meet human needs. His research employs the use of econometric and systems dynamics models of oil supply, natural resource scarcity, and the relation between the use of energy and natural resources and economic systems.
Kenneth S. Deffeyes, author of Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, is Professor Emeritus at Princeton University. Before joining the Princeton faculty in 1967, he conducted research at the Shell Oil research laboratory in Houston and taught at the University of Minnesota and Oregon State University.
Richard Duncan has extended Hubbert's model and has carefully analyzed the standing of Mexico's oil reserves in his article, "Mexico's Petroleum Exports: Safe Collateral for a $50 Billion Loan?"
Brian Fleay has recently written a book about the impact that the Hubbert Peak will have on Australia, "The Decline of the Age of Oil. Petrol Politics: Australias Road Ahead."
Harold Hotelling was a Professor in the Department of Geology at Stanford University, and his article, The Economics of Exhaustible Resources, is cited very frequently by those who are interested in sustainability.
L.F. 'Buzz' Ivanhoe, a colleague and disciple of Dr. Hubbert, is President of Novum Corp. in Ojai, California. He is a registered geologist, geophysicist, engineer and oceanographer with 50 years domestic and international experience in petroleum exploration with various private and government oil companies. He has published extensively on global oil reserves -- the subject of the Hubbert Peak. He is now Coordinator of the M. King Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies in the Department of Petroleum Engineering at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden, Colorado.
Dr. Kaufmann is Associate Professor in the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Boston University. With Cutler Cleveland, Dr. Kaufman conducts research on the ecological-economic analysis of how energy and materials are used to meet human needs. He was one of the principal authors of Beyond Oil, a book written in the 1980's calling attention to the coming oil crisis. Refer to his lecture "Oil and the American Way of Life: Don't Ask, Don't Tell" on June 1, 2005 at Fermilab.
Jean Laherrère has had an extensive career in oil exploration in the Sahara, Australia and Canada. At TOTAL headquarters in Paris he was in charge of new ventures negotiation, technical services and research, and exploration. He has served on numerous industry panels. He is now a consultant with Petroconsultants on world oil and gas potential and future production, and has developed prediction methods based on parabolic fractal distributions in Nature.
Assistant Professor and Graduate Director in the Economics Department at the University of Alaska, Dr. Reynolds is the author of Energy Grades and Historic Economic Growth.
Retired Professor of Geology at the University of Oregon, Dr. Walter Youngquist is the author of GeoDestinies: The inevitable control of Earth resources over nations and individuals. Dr. Youngquist has collaborated with Richard Duncan in developing scenarios of future oil production.
Jack Zagar has twenty-six years experience in North Sea, Middle East, Gulf of Mexico, and onshore U.S.A. operations, primarily with a major international oil company in petroleum reservoir engineering and reservoir management; economic evaluations of projects, property trades, and asset sales; corporate planning and world oil reserve estimates in collaboration with Dr. Colin Campbell.
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